arty: Hello dubpoet..
With regard to the posted Wagering Prop of " Mcnabb's Longest Carry over 9.5 Yards -132 at Pinnacle"....
To me it seems as tho' the price of -132 might be set a little high, everyone thought that McNabb would take off and run more in the playoffs than he did during the regular season due to the absence of WR Terrell Owens.
However, a check of McNabb's rushing numbers from this years two playoff games against the Vikes and Falcons show that McNabb ran three times versus Minny for all of three yards, against the Falcons McNabb tucked the ball ten times and ran for 32 yards for an average of 3.2 yds per rush with his longest jaunt being a run of 8 yards.
The patriot LB's are better than Atlanta's so it would surprise me if McNabb was able to break off one longer than the 8 yard run that he did against the Falcons, however, with the being said I do expect to see the Eagles using alot of spread formations to better run the ball...so you never know.
Personally, what I like to do when analyzing Super Bowl props is to tie-in the props which give good value with regard to the posted money-line attached with the prop to the way you see the game itself flowing.
For example, I think this years Super Bowl will be much more defense oriented and thus lower scoring than last years Super Bowl, with that in mind a low scoring game would point me to a play on the Eagles +7.
Since I like the Eagles +7 along with the UNDER 48 in this years Super Bowl, I then looked for props geared along with my train of thought and found two good props:
Philly +4.5....+128
Both teams to make a FG over 32.5 yards....-110
The good news is that if I have pegged this game correctly, then chances are that I will also collect on both of my prop wagers, however, if I am wrong in how I see this game going I will probably lose the props as well....just my thoughts.
take care and good luck!
Deb
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